Mathematical Modelling of Hybrid Solar–Wind Energy Systems for Sustainable Rural Electrification in Nigeria: Analytical Formulation and Numerical Simulation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63561/jmns.v3i1.1156Keywords:
Hybrid Renewable Energy, Solar–Wind System, Mathematical Modelling, Rural ElectrificationAbstract
Hybrid renewable energy systems offer a sustainable alternative to diesel-based rural electrification in developing countries, yet their long-term reliability and cost performance remain highly sensitive to climatic variability. This study presents a comprehensive 8760-hour (full-year) simulation of a hybrid solar photovoltaic (PV)–wind–battery microgrid across four representative Nigerian climatic zones: Kano, Jos, Abuja, and Calabar. A uniform system configuration comprising 90 kWp PV, 30 kW wind, 450 kWh battery storage, and a 120 kW inverter was adopted to isolate the influence of resource availability on system performance. Reliability was assessed using the Loss of Power Supply Probability (LPSP), while economic performance was evaluated in Nigerian Naira (₦) using Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), Net Present Cost (NPC), and simple payback period relative to diesel generation. Simulation results indicate near-perfect reliability (LPSP ≈ 0) for Kano, Jos, and Abuja, while Calabar exhibits a moderate LPSP of approximately 2.3%, attributed to persistent cloud cover and lower solar irradiance. Despite this, Calabar records the lowest LCOE due to higher annual energy throughput and reduced battery cycling stress, highlighting that low energy cost does not necessarily imply high reliability. The NPC remains constant across all locations (≈ ₦5.71 × 10⁸) due to fixed system sizing, with LCOE variations driven by differences in energy yield and storage utilization. All locations achieve payback periods below nine years, confirming the economic superiority of hybrid renewable systems over diesel generation. The findings demonstrate that while hybrid PV–wind systems are economically viable across Nigeria, location-specific design optimization is essential, particularly in coastal regions where higher storage margins or wind penetration are required to meet strict reliability targets.
References
Ackermann, T. (Ed.). (2012). Wind power in power systems (2nd ed.). Wiley.
Adefarati, T., & Bansal, R. C. (2017). Reliability and economic assessment of a microgrid power system with the integration of renewable energy resources. Applied Energy, 206, 911–933.
Adeoye, A. M., Spataru, C., & Bamisile, O. (2019). Analysis of renewable energy-based off-grid electrification options for rural Nigeria: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 112, 257–272.
Bajpai, P., & Dash, V. (2012). Hybrid renewable energy systems for power generation in stand-alone applications: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(5), 2926–2939.
Bhattacharyya, S. C. (2012). Energy access programmes and sustainable development: A critical review and analysis. Energy for Sustainable Development, 16(3), 260–271.
Borowy, B. S., & Salameh, Z. M. (1996). Methodology for optimally sizing the combination of a battery bank and PV array in a wind/PV hybrid system. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 11(2), 367–373.
Borowy, B. S., & Salameh, Z. M. (1997). Optimum photovoltaic array size for a hybrid wind/PV system. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, 12(1), 13–20.
Duffie, J. A., & Beckman, W. A. (2013). Solar engineering of thermal processes (4th ed.). Wiley.
Kalogirou, S. A. (2014). Solar energy engineering: Processes and systems (2nd ed.). Academic Press.
Lasseter, R. H. (2011). Smart distribution: Coupled microgrids. Proceedings of the IEEE, 99(6), 1074–1082.
Lambert, T., Gilman, P., & Lilienthal, P. (2006). Micropower system modeling with HOMER. In F. A. Farret & M. G. Simões (Eds.), Integration of alternative sources of energy (pp. 379–418). John Wiley & Sons.
Luna-Rubio, R., Trejo-Perea, M., Vargas-Vázquez, D., & Ríos-Moreno, J. G. (2012). Optimal sizing of renewable hybrids energy systems: A review of methodologies. Solar Energy, 86(4), 1077–1088.
Manwell, J. F., McGowan, J. G., & Rogers, A. L. (2010). Wind energy explained: Theory, design and application (2nd ed.). Wiley.
Masters, G. M. (2013). Renewable and efficient electric power systems (2nd ed.). Wiley.
Olivares, D. E., Mehrizi-Sani, A., Etemadi, A. H., Cañizares, C. A., Iravani, R., Kazerani, M., Hajimiragha, A. H., Gomis-Bellmunt, O., Saeedifard, M., Palma-Behnke, R., Jiménez-Estévez, G. A., & Hatziargyriou, N. D. (2014). Trends in microgrid control. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 5(4), 1905–1919.
Yang, H., Zhou, W., Lu, L., & Fang, Z. (2008). Optimal sizing method for stand-alone hybrid solar–wind system with LPSP technology by using genetic algorithm. Solar Energy, 82(4), 354–367.
