Statistical Modelling of Solar Energy Potential in Abuja and Nasarawa State, Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63561/jmns.v2i3.867Keywords:
Solar Radiation, Descriptive Statistics, Nimet, Federal Capital Territory, Nasarawa StateAbstract
This study presents a predictive modeling approach to evaluate the solar energy potential in Nigeria’s Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, and Nasarawa State over a ten-year period using statistical methods. The research integrates descriptive statistics and solar radiation modeling to assess both the electricity generation potential and atmospheric clarity of the two regions. Results show that both FCT and Nasarawa consistently experience average daily solar radiation levels exceeding 17.5 MJ/m²/day, which surpasses the global threshold for high solar energy potential. Specifically, solar radiation in FCT ranges from 11.4 to 22.0 MJ/m²/day, with an annual total of 211.7 MJ/m²/day, while Nasarawa State records 11.8 to 22.2 MJ/m²/day, totaling 209.6 MJ/m²/day. Reliability indices during off-rainy seasons are 0.62 for FCT and 0.56 for Nasarawa, indicating favorable conditions for solar power generation. A photovoltaic (PV) performance analysis using a 550W panel predicts annual energy outputs of 6.206 × 10⁷ MWh for FCT and 2.27 × 10⁸ MWh for Nasarawa. The clearness index (Kt) varies from 0.414 to 0.665 in FCT and 0.432 to 0.662 in Nasarawa, with slightly clearer atmospheric conditions observed in FCT. Skewness values of –0.379 (FCT) and –0.220 (Nasarawa) suggest left-tailed distributions, while kurtosis values of 1.322 and 1.168 indicate platykurtic behaviour. These findings validate the use of statistical models in predicting solar energy potential and highlight the suitability of both regions for long-term solar power deployment.
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