SEIR Model-Based Evaluation of the impact of Smoking Recruitment rates on Lung Cancer Incidence and Prevalence
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63561/jmns.v2i3.869Keywords:
SEIR Model, Intervention Strategy, Disease Mitigation, Cigarette Smoking, Lung CancerAbstract
Lung cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide, with tobacco smoking being the primary risk factor. This study develops an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model to investigate the impact of smoking recruitment rates on lung cancer incidence and prevalence. The systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations were used the define the dynamics of Lung cancer, which involves the recruitment rate. The analysis of a total population size in a region N(t) at any time t which is subdivided into five compartments such as, S(t) (susceptible population that is the vulnerable subpopulation who are not infected with lung cancer, but at a high risk of infection as a result of smoking), population who are active smoker ????????( t), population who are victim of smoking Ep ( t), number of individual infected with lung cancer I( t) and number of population recovered from lung cancer R(t) was involved in the study. The positivity, uniqueness and boundedness of solutions were verified, whereas the sensitivity and basic reproductive number were determined analytically. Numerical simulations are performed to explore the effects of varying smoking recruitment rates on lung cancer burden. The results show that reducing smoking recruitment rates can significantly decrease lung cancer incidence and prevalence. Results show that the number of lung cancer cases originating from the active smoker population and higher values of recruitment rate led to increased lung cancer cases among smokers. Increased active smoker recruitment rate (a) leads to higher smoking prevalence, increased lung cancer incidence, and higher mortality rates. Also increased rate of population becoming victim of smoking (b) leads to higher smoking prevalence, increased lung cancer incidence and higher mortality rates. The study recommends implementing advocacy on the Reduction of smoking recruitment rates through education campaigns and promotion of an increase in lung cancer screening and early detection with sound policies to reduce lung cancer incidence rates. The study suggests that enhancing antagonistic relationships between tumour-promoting and suppressive factors could improve the robustness of anti-cancer strategies, making tumours more controllable.
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